While these types of villager hunt videos are very fun to watch, I do feel like many player overestimate the probability of finding one specific villager in for example a hundred tickets and underestimate how much you increase your chances of finding a dreamie by adding even one more villager to your dreamies list. What players with a higher frustration tolerance than me will thus do is stock up on hundreds of Nook Miles Tickets and visit island after island until they meet and invite one of the villagers on their вЂњdreamiesвЂќ list. Once a plot opens up on the island, you can use a Nook Miles Ticket to fly to a mystery island, where you will meet a random new villager and have the possibility to invite them. Lots of players are thus very selective about who they let move onto their island. Now then вЂ“ in the game there are currently 397 villagers, but you only have 10 spots on your island. In this blog entry, however, I want to focus on something different вЂ“ villager hunting.

This is actually a form of the coupon collectorвЂ™s problem and maybe a topic for a later blog entry. But the last few fossils could very easily take you weeks and weeks to find. This means that in the beginning you will find new fossils every day and you feel like youвЂ™ll finish the collection in no time. In that moment, the game will randomly decide which of the 73 fossils you have found. One example is the fossils exhibit in the museum: every day, 4 buried fossils will spawn on your island, which you can then bring to Blathers вЂ“ a prohibitively cute owl museum curator вЂ“ to assess.

I started playing Animal Crossing: New Horizons a few months ago and one thing that fascinated me about the game вЂ“ besides how fun and addicting it is вЂ“ is the amount of probability sampling going on in the background. How many times have you meticulously built your dreamies list, stocked up on NMTs and flown to an honestly shocking amount of mystery islands only to not find a single one of your dreamies? Are the Animal Crossing Gods against you? Is Wilbur deliberately flying you to the same villagers over and over again? Or is it actually just statisticsвЂ¦ ?

Acnh dreamie list